The Rebirth: Tunisia’s Potential Development Pathways to 2040
This report analyses Tunisia’s most likely Current Path development trajectory post COVID-19, and the impact of three alternative scenarios. The Growth-led scenario simulates a future where Tunisia pursues economic growth at all costs. The Leapfrogging scenario takes advantage of technology to rapidly adopt modern systems for development. Finally, in the Sustainability & Equality scenario, Tunisia improves economic and human development without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. This report presents an integrated analysis of Tunisia’s likely future development trajectory (or Current Path) to 2040, using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. The analysis is then complemented by presenting the impact of three policy orientations that prioritise growth, sustainability and equality, and leapfrogging, respectively. The three pathways frame the choices for resource allocation and accompanying trade offs that need to be made for the future. Underpinning all three scenarios is the need to reform governance.