Briefing Paper

The Political Outlook in Southern Africa: some current considerations

This paper looks at how the Portuguese collapse in April 1974 dramtically changed the situation and critically affected the outlook for Southern Africa in four major ways. It removed not only the physical, but also the psychological, barriers which had been limiting the influence and advance of Black nationalism into Southern Africa; it increased the Super Powers involvement and rivalry in the region; the region became inter-dependent in fields of trade, transport, labour relations, power and natural resources; South Africa became dominant in the region, economically and militarily. There is however, a general impression of instability. These factors make the future of the region unpredictable, there are disputes or actual conflicts between countries. Among recommendations is a fundamental guiding principle which is the achievement of stable development in Southern Africa and the restoration of confidence.