Sudan After Bashir: Regional Opportunities and Challenges
Omar al-Bashir’s removal from power will have long-term effects on Sudan’s political future. Even though domestic considerations forced Bashir’s downfall, his extensive involvement in regional issues means his departure will resonate beyond the confines of Sudan’s borders. This report explores the regional implications of Bashir’s removal and the subsequent role of external actors in Sudan’s internal affairs. This report is structured in four sections. It begins by conceptualising a framework for understanding Bashir’s exit. That is followed by a section exploring the implications of Bashir’s exit from the perspective of an end to his controversial involvement in the search for peace in South Sudan and as host to the AU-led peace initiative in the Central Africa Republic (CAR). This is followed by a discussion of the implications of some of the negative roles Bashir played, highlighted by the complex regional relationships he had with Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia and South Sudan. It then explores the involvement of regional Arab countries and the wider international community in post-Bashir Sudan. The report concludes that Bashir’s exit will have as powerful an impact in the region as it will have in Sudan itself. There is, therefore, a need for the region and the international community to maximise the opportunities his exit offers and minimise the challenges emerging, in the interest of regional peace and security.