A Scoping Study of Nigeria’s Tobacco Market and Policy Space
This study examined the market structure and recent developments in the tobacco control policy space in Nigeria. Smoking prevalence is growing in Nigeria and this poses significant health, public finance and productivity risks, requiring adequate policy intervention. There is a growing momentum towards curbing the upward trend in tobacco consumption through taxation and other regulatory control measures. This study focuses on tobacco taxation, exploring the potential health and fiscal benefits and the scope for the current market conditions to accommodate the proposed tax structure by government. In addition, we establish earmarking the revenue to targeted tobacco control initiatives and further examine the political will as well as support for tobacco taxation and earmarking. Chapter two provides a snapshot of tobacco market and pricing structures in Nigeria. Cigarette prices were found to vary moderately across brands, regions and over time. Notably, economy brands have the highest variability, while the popular brands have the lowest variability. Price variation is also higher in the southern region than in the north. However, when the analysis is extended to affordability, cigarettes are less affordable in northern states relative to states in the south. Chapter three compares Tobacco Tax Simulation Model (TETSiM) results for the proposed tobacco tax structure in Nigeria with alternative recommendations by the WHO and from respondents in the CSEA survey. Chapter four assesses public support for tobacco taxation and earmarking, and simulates the potential gains from earmarking revenue from tobacco taxation to targeted public health and tobacco control programmes. Finally, Chapter five provides an assessment what constitutes political will in Nigeria and how it is expressed by key decision makers, as well as identifies the dominant forces that reinforce and undermine the sustenance of political will in Nigeria.