Post-Referendum Security Scenarios for South Sudan
"The 9th of January 2011 will be a momentous day for all southern Sudanese people. After 22 years of civil conflict between north and south Sudan the country will hold a referendum on the right of south Sudan to secede and form an independent state. This paper outlines the key security challenges facing Sudan regardless of what the outcome of the referendum may be. The paper appraises the interests,dynamics and efforts posed by national,regional and international actors in either sustaining or responding to the potential security crisis. Nationally the security situation remains precarious, and regionally the problem is bound to spill over, so political will is needed to sustain the various ongoing diplomatic efforts in the face of the looming threat of a return to war. Specific attention is given to the security implications arising from the dynamics between Sudan’s neighbouring countries and from key international relationships. The paper concludes with some concrete recommendations."