Parched Prospects II - A Revised Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast for South Africa

With water withdrawals currently exceeding reliable supply, it is presumed that South Africa is over exploiting its water resources at the national level. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper forecasts that withdrawals in all three sectors (municipal, industrial and agricultural) will increase over the next 20 years. Proposed interventions for increasing supply and reducing demand are not enough to reconcile the gap between withdrawals and supply. Much more should be done to bring the South African water sector into balance and reconcile future national water withdrawals with future national supply.