Morocco's Decarbonization Pathway Part II: Updated Decarbonization Scenarios

The consequences of climate change are becoming progressively more visible in Morocco. Changes in rainfall patterns and drought, increases in average temperatures and heatwaves, flooding, and rising sea levels are increasingly affecting several regions. Yet, Morocco has a relatively low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rate, compared to other countries. In 2016, Morocco’s total GHG emissions reached 86127.7 gigagram of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gg CO2-eq), totaling around 0.2% of global GHG emissions. However, emission levels are anticipated to increase significantly in the coming decades as a result of the country’s continuing economic development. Seeking to tackle climate change, Morocco aims to contribute to global efforts by pursuing a rapid transition to a resilient, low-carbon economy, while enhancing equity and progress on the sustainable development goals (SDGs). As a result, Morocco submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) when it ratified the Paris Agreement on September 21, 2016. The country pledged an unconditional 17% reduction in GHG emissions including Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use AFOLU (13 % without AFOLU), by 2030 compared to a BAU scenario and a conditional 42% reduction in GHG emissions including AFOLU (34 % without AFOLU) below the BAU scenario by 2030. This Policy Brief, the second in a series of four, presents the results of the decarbonization scenario modelling.