Key to the Horn Ethiopia’s Prospects to 2030
Ethiopia’s current path of development is explored in this brief, as well as the policies which are examined that could accelerate Ethiopia’s growth, support the country’s transition to lower-middle income status and advance human development up to 2030. It is a summary of a much more comprehensive independent report that was completed for the United States Agency for International Development, using the International Futures forecasting system (IFs). IFs is hosted and developed by the Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver. This policy brief first explores Ethiopia’s recent history and its anticipated development trajectory (or the Current Path forecast). It then creates scenarios to simulate ambitious but realistic five-year interventions (2017–21) across different development sectors, and explores the effects of these interventions on development outcomes to 2030 or beyond. Finally, the paper explores the trade-offs between different interventions and how they could affect the country’s current development trajectory. The report on which this summary is based sought to identify potential leverage points for the GoE to improve human development outcomes.