The Impact of Fragility on Growth and Poverty in Nigeria: A Disaggregate State-level Analysis

This paper empirically investigated the fragility-growth nexus, as well as the fragility poverty nexus, in a sample of 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in Nigeria. We further considered the macroeconomic and socio-political relationship in fragile and non-fragile states of Nigeria. Using data covering the period between 2011 and 2015, both the static approach (Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effect, and Random Effect) and dynamic approach (Difference and System Generalized Method of Moments) were explored to provide answers to some key questions in the study. The results showed that neoclassical approach and socio-political approach complement each other. We further observed that, economic growth and poverty need urgent attention in both fragile and non-fragile states, but special attention should be directed towards fragile states to move them above fragility trap for them to be more resilient. There is still high-level poverty coupled with declined growth in both regions.