Economic Costs of Civil Conflicts: The Case of Burundi

This study examines the effects of episodes of civil conflicts in Burundi on its economic performance. The study applies the regression method using Extreme Bound Analysis, and the Synthetic Control method. Our main results indicate that: (i) from 1970 to 2015, civil conflicts, on average, reduced economic growth by 4 percentage points per year of conflict; (ii) the 1993-2003 civil war cost each Burundian between US$ 1,290 and US$ 1,520 and between US$ 8 billion and US$ 10 billion to the whole country; (iii) the last civil conflict in 2015 has been relatively costly, having reduced economic growth by 8.9 percentage points relative to its counterfactual. These results highlight the need to consolidate peace to eliminate fragility and achieve long-term economic development.