Early Warning and Conflict in Africa
"This paper has focused on a number of challenges that could be confronted in the project to establish an OAU Early Warning system for the prevention and management of conflict situations. It has also indicated that it is an idea with specific relevance for the present, and a concept that could work successfully. Its development depends especially on the choice of an appropriate, clear theoretical basis for understanding the causes of conflict and on a scheme for using the results of analysis. Engaging in conflict prevention without an Early Warning system is like entering into a cave without a torch."