Dynamic Inter-Links Among the Exchange Rate, Price Level and Terms of Trade in a Managed Floating Exchange Rate System: The Case of Ghana

"This study examined the dynamic inter-relationships among domestic price level, nominal exchange rate, terms of trade of cocoa, bank rate, domestic credit and foreign exchange reserves using the cointegration, vector error correction (VEC) and vector auto regression (VAR) approaches. The cointegration analysis confirms the presence of three economically interpretable stable long-run relationships among the relevant variables. The speeds of adjustment for the foreign exchange market, the interest market and the market for cocoa are relatively higher than the speeds of adjustment for the markets of non-tradeables and domestic credit. The determinants of domestic inflation in the short run are bank rate, foreign exchange reserves, terms of trade of cocoa and government expenditure. For the short-run depreciation of the local currency, the determinants are the domestic price level, terms of trade of cocoa and foreign exchange reserves. For terms of trade of cocoa (which proxies collusion) in the short run, the determinants are domestic credit, foreign exchange reserves, terms of trade of gold and the price of petrol. The effects of monetary and terms of trade shocks are generally transmitted to the domestic price level, terms of trade of cocoa, and nominal exchange rate."