Clean Energy and Development for South Africa : Results
"The objective of this document is to report on the scenarios considered and compare the costs and social impacts using the sustainability indicators. The scenarios reported on are the energy efficiency improvements in the commercial, industrial, transport and residential sector, an increased penetration of biofuels and renewables and increased use of nuclear energy. The scenarios contain alternative fuel and appliance choices. Deviations from the base case are introduced in order to determine the effect specific policies or actions will have on the final energy demand and related emissions and costs of the system. In addition to the scenarios the study includes a base case sensitivity analysis with a lower GDP growth rate and another with technology learning on electricity generation technologies. The first report entitled Background Data makes reference to the attempt to include the effect exchange rate would have on technology choices that rely on large foreign input, such as future power stations. It has been estimated that a large portion of investment into generation capacity may not be spent locally unless there is investment in local capacity. For demonstration purposes the results of the base case with the increased cost of generation technologies due to the increase in exchange rate are included in the third report. This report has four sections, the first includes all base case results and sustainability indicators needed for the analysis. The second covers the energy efficiency scenarios. The third covers the scenarios that relate to alternative policies for generation technologies, the last section reports on the sensitivity analyses. Finally there are conclusions and recommendations."