Assessing Long-Term State Fragility in Africa: Prospects for 26 ‘more fragile’ Countries

"This monograph has presented a model of fragility drawn from the contemporary scholarly and practice-oriented literature, provided a long-term, ‘structural’ forecast on the future of Africa’s more fragile countries, and developed various alternative scenarios. The recommendations that follow are of a strategic, ‘big picture’ nature, in tandem with the broad brush strokes with which the forecasts were undertaken. The recommendations are grouped in accordance with the dimensions of fragility that were identified as part of the study, as follows: 1. Thinking long term by planning for long-term fragility and data innovation 2. Preventing and managing conflict by responding to a bad neighbourhood and the security dilemma, as well as establishing an enhanced partnership with the UN 3. Reducing poverty and inequality by reform of the extractive sector and securing future oil/gas income as cash transfers 4. Improving governance by building the foundations of the state and balancing security demands with other requirements."