“This monograph has presented a model of fragility drawn from the contemporary
scholarly and practice-oriented literature, provided a long-term, ‘structural’
forecast on the future of Africa’s more fragile countries, and developed various
alternative scenarios. The recommendations that follow are of a strategic, ‘big
picture’ nature, in tandem with the broad brush strokes with which the forecasts were undertaken. The recommendations are grouped in accordance with the dimensions of
fragility that were identified as part of the study, as follows: 1. Thinking long term by planning for long-term fragility and data innovation 2. Preventing and managing conflict by responding to a bad neighbourhood
and the security dilemma, as well as establishing an enhanced partnership with the UN 3. Reducing poverty and inequality by reform of the extractive sector and
securing future oil/gas income as cash transfers 4. Improving governance by building the foundations of the state and
balancing security demands with other requirements.”
