Assessing Long Term State Fragility in Africa : Prospects for 26 ‘more fragile’ Countries

This monograph propose that ten presently fragile states (Comoros, the CAR, the DRC, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, the Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Togo) will continue to experience poor governance, chronic poverty, potentially widening inequality, and continued vulnerability to violence and armed conflict well into the future. The base-case forecast is that by 2030 at least Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Guinea, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Uganda and Zimbabwe would have escaped from the current ‘more fragile’ label: they are forecast to experience sufficient progress in security and development equivalent to today’s more resilient grouping. It can be expected that Eritrea, Liberia, Rwanda and Sierra Leone would by the year 2050 also have excited the ‘more fragile’ grouping. The monograph features a base-case forecast, and an optimistic and pessimistic scenario. An optimistic scenario would envision better-than-expected gains in governance, conflict prevention and development. In this scenario it is expected to have a combination of advances in technology, or better regional and global governance, or more effective approaches to capacity development at the national and local levels, or breakthroughs in inclusive growth. There could also be many origins for a pessimistic or worst-case scenario such as an increase in local-level conflict over resources such as land, water and grazing, and in crowded urban settings, as the impact of ever higher levels of greenhouse gases disturbs the current climate balance. This forecast could see ten countries remaining in the ‘more fragile’ category by 2050.