Angolan Futures 2050: Beyond Oil
Quality education and a good standard of living remain out of reach for most Angolans, despite decades of rapid economic growth. The oil price-induced economic downturn beginning in 2014 exacerbated already high levels of severe poverty, particularly in the rural provinces. This report explores the impacts of different developmental agendas on Angola’s growth trajectory. It reveals that improved water and sanitation infrastructure offer the best way to improve livelihoods and grow the economy over the long term. This report offers an integrated assessment of how Angola may develop to 2050 across a range of sectors including economics, energy, demographics, agriculture and health. It first examines an integrated forecast on Angola’s long-term future. Termed the ‘Current Path’, this scenario represents a continuation of current domestic and international policy conditions. The Current Path is a dynamic scenario that moves beyond a linear extrapolation of historical dynamics and reflects unfolding phenomena, including climate change, stocks of water, fossil fuels and other natural resources as well as global demographic trends. The report then presents five sectoral scenarios for Angola that illustrate the impact of ambitious but realistic policies to advance education and women’s empowerment; water and sanitation infrastructure; agriculture; governance; and energy with a time horizon to 2050. These scenarios are complementary and the eventual choices on Angola’s future development pathway will necessarily reflect a combination of certain dimensions of each scenario.