Africa in the New World How Global and Domestic Developments Will Impact by 2025
"This monograph looks at key shifts that will determine the future of Africa in the world. The first four ‘megatrends’constitute those external developments that will impact upon Africa and over which it has little control, namely the global shift of power from West to East, the impact of climate change, globalisation,and state power and interdependence and complexity. Students of security studies may be intrigued by the fact that the rise of global insecurity does not feature as a megatrend, although it features as an underlying theme in a number of sections. In simple terms it is probably the action of one country,the United States, that will singularly determine our future global(in)security, as US reaction has done more to undermine global security than the original terrorist attacks on 9/11 on the World Trade Center and elsewhere. The second set of ‘African variables’ reflects domestic developments, some in response to the megatrends, others more deeply rooted in the region. These are Africa’s population dynamics, trade, democratisation/governance, and peace and stability. Collectively the two sets of factors provide a glimpse of the possible emerging futures for the continent. Both emphasise the importance of (sub) regional integration for Africa."