A New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems

The mission of AGMIP is to provide effective science-based agricultural decision-making models and assessments of climate variability and change and sustainable farming systems to achieve local-to-global food security. The presentation starts with a brief discussion on AGMIP's (the agricultural model inter comparison and improvement project) 3 focus areas : i.e. Modelling for sustainable farming areas & coordinated global and regional agricultural assessments & next generation knowledge products, improved models and data. The current activities is discussed next, which includes : Key interactions like water resources, livestock, pastures, soils and crop rotation, pests and diseases. The following discussion is on AGMIP's 5 attributes in regional integrated assessments: i.e. Farming systems (1) Trans disciplinary: climate/ biophysical/ socio-economic (2) Multi-scale: field, farm, region, global data and models. (3) Multiple climate and crop models (4) Distributional results: impacts on poverty. The following discussion is about the key features of AGMIP’s RIA approach. 1)a Protocol-based approach - which is rigorously documented so results can be replicated and inter-compared, and methods improved. 2) Participatory, i.e. the identification of impact indicators, choice of key systems, adaptations, design of future pathways and scenarios used. 3) a trans-disciplinary, systems-based approach which must include key features of current and possible future systems, including multiple crops, inter-crops, livestock, and non-agricultural sources of income. 4) Heterogeneity, which must account for the diversity of systems, and the widely varying bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. 5) Vulnerability - it should be possible to characterize the impacts on those farm households that are adversely impacted by climate change, as well as those that benefit from climate change.