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Macroeconomic Policy and Trade Integration in Southern Africa

"Macroeconomic policy convergence may not be strictly necessary for countries within a regional trading arrangement to trade with each other using their existing economic capacity. The argument of this paper is that macro convergence around low ra...

Exchange Rates and Export Competitiveness Prepared for the World Bank Study on Export Diversification in Botswana

"The objective of the report is to provide an assessment of the role of the exchange rate in determining export competitiveness, as part of the broader Botswana Export Diversification Study. The report comprises three main sections: (i) Real and...

OSSREA Bulletin Vol 7 No 3

In this bulletin several workshops held by OSSREA were discussed as well as the launching of NBRP books as well as a strategic plan for 2011-2015. Featured articles included : Is the Adoption of Multicurrency System a Panacea to Urban Dwellers’ So...

Trade, Industrial Policy and Exchange Rates in South Africa

"South Africa’s trade, industrial and exchange rate policies have been the subject of substantial public debate in recent months, not least owing to the impact of the 2008–10 global financial crisis. On the trade and industrial policy fronts a sub...

Understanding the Exchange Rate Regimes in South Sudan: A Non-technical Review

This paper simplifies and discusses our understanding of the exchange rate policy regime in South Sudan. After independence in 2011, South Sudan fixed the value of its currency, the South Sudan Pound (SSP), to the U.S. dollar. This is a common pra...

The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy and Capital Control in Nigeria

This paper examines the primary cause of the exchange rate management failure in Nigeria by evaluating the motivating factor for these changes and reviewing the role of politics and interest group in the Nigerian exchange rate management. The fi...

Foreign Exchange Rationing and Wheat Markets in Ethiopia

This paper examines the developments in Ethiopia’s wheat markets, including the links between international and domestic prices for wheat, the implications of foreign exchange rationing (that effectively stopped private sector wheat imports), and ...

Why has the Exchange Rate Policy Failed in Nigeria?

This policy brief examines the primary cause of the exchange rate policy failure in Nigeria by evaluating the motivating factor for exchange rate regime changes in the country and reviewing the role of politics and interest groups in the Nigerian ...

The Role of a Flexible Foreign Exchange System in Macroeconomic Adjustment: The Case of Morocco

Morocco has moved towards a more flexible exchange rate system, by widening its currency fluctuation bands to +/- 2.5% around a central price. This transition will, in time, equip the Moroccan economy with a macroeconomic instrument acting as a sh...

Rôle du Régime de change Flexible dans l’ajustement Macroéconomique: cas du Maroc / The Role of a Flexible Foreign Exchange System in Macroeconomic Adjustment: The Case of Morocco

Morocco has moved towards a more flexible exchange rate system, by widening its currency fluctuation bands to +/- 2.5% around a central price. This transition will, in time, equip the Moroccan economy with a macroeconomic instrument acting as a sh...

Exchange Rate, Petroleum Price and Price Determination in Sierra Leone

The Sierra Leone economy is a net importer with a chronic negative balance of trade. Imports as a percentage of GDP averaged 40.8% between 2001 and 2010. Imports of food, mineral fuels and lubricants accounted for 50.8% of the total value of impor...

Conditional Pricing of Currency Risk in Africa's Equity Market

In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa’s volatile currencies drive equity risk premium. We use the stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing M...

Is the Botswana Pula Misaligned?

"The objective of this paper is to assess the extent to which the Botswana exchange rate (the Pula) has been consistent with economic fundamentals. To do so an equilibrium exchange rate is estimated and compared against the values of the effective...

Nigeria Economic Update Issue 25

This document provides a brief update on several aspects of the Nigerian economy. The first article is about Foreign Trade - Recent data received from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which shows that Nigeria’s Foreign Trade declined by 37...

Depreciation of the Ugandan Shilling: Implications for the National Economy

The Ugandan Shilling depreciated over the course of 2014/15 fiscal year, against the US dollar by over 20%. Uganda, like many other economies, was struggling with the falling value of its’ currency against the dollar which was attributed to the fa...

Is the Ethiopian Birr Overvalued? A Sober Assessment

"The purpose of this short paper is to answer the question by examining whether the Birr is misaligned or it is close to its equilibrium value as determined by macroeconomic fundamentals. To do so, the paper estimates what is called the fundamenta...

Single-Digit Inflation And The Cost Of Living Dichotomy In Ghana

'Ghana has a long history of high inflation rates, popularly attributed to supply not keeping up with demand. However, Ghana's current single digit inflation can be attributed to a number of factors including the reduction in global inflation rat...

A Statistical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rate Behaviour in Nigeria's Auction

"In the attempt to explain some of the possible causes of the instability, particularly in the principal currency, our study looked at the macroeconomic policy characteristics of all six phases of the auction system between September 26 1986 and D...

Assessing Export Supply Constraints: Methodology, Data, Measurement

"This paper develops a research framework to assess the constraints to export supply in low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It begins with a review of theory and evidence on export development in low- income countries in section 2. It then...

Current Global Crisis and Macroeconomic Implications of AID-financed Public Investments: Evidence from Tanzania

"In this paper we discuss the macroeconomic implications of variations in AID inflows for Tanzania using an economy-wide dynamic CGE model. The major conclusions coming out from this work is that productivity effects matter. If additional aid and ...

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