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Macroeconomic Policy and Trade Integration in Southern Africa

"Macroeconomic policy convergence may not be strictly necessary for countries within a regional trading arrangement to trade with each other using their existing economic capacity. The argument of this paper is that macro convergence around low ra...

Exchange Rates and Export Competitiveness Prepared for the World Bank Study on Export Diversification in Botswana

"The objective of the report is to provide an assessment of the role of the exchange rate in determining export competitiveness, as part of the broader Botswana Export Diversification Study. The report comprises three main sections: (i) Real and...

OSSREA Bulletin Vol 7 No 3

In this bulletin several workshops held by OSSREA were discussed as well as the launching of NBRP books as well as a strategic plan for 2011-2015. Featured articles included : Is the Adoption of Multicurrency System a Panacea to Urban Dwellers’ So...

Trade, Industrial Policy and Exchange Rates in South Africa

"South Africa’s trade, industrial and exchange rate policies have been the subject of substantial public debate in recent months, not least owing to the impact of the 2008–10 global financial crisis. On the trade and industrial policy fronts a sub...

Foreign Aid and the Real Exchange Rate in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

This paper aims to re-examine the relationship between foreign aid and the real exchange rate, using the recent econometric methods developed for non stationary dynamic panels and an estimator that imposes a weaker homogeneity assumption on the s...

Nigeria Economic Update Issue 3

This document provides a brief update on several aspects of the Nigerian economy. An overview is given of Nigeria's merchandise trade toward the end of 2015. The trading of power resources, like oil and natural gas is discussed under the heading E...

Nigeria Economic Update Issue 25

This document provides a brief update on several aspects of the Nigerian economy. The first article is about Foreign Trade - Recent data received from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which shows that Nigeria’s Foreign Trade declined by 37...

Depreciation of the Ugandan Shilling: Implications for the National Economy

The Ugandan Shilling depreciated over the course of 2014/15 fiscal year, against the US dollar by over 20%. Uganda, like many other economies, was struggling with the falling value of its’ currency against the dollar which was attributed to the fa...

Is the Ethiopian Birr Overvalued? A Sober Assessment

"The purpose of this short paper is to answer the question by examining whether the Birr is misaligned or it is close to its equilibrium value as determined by macroeconomic fundamentals. To do so, the paper estimates what is called the fundamenta...

Single-Digit Inflation And The Cost Of Living Dichotomy In Ghana

'Ghana has a long history of high inflation rates, popularly attributed to supply not keeping up with demand. However, Ghana's current single digit inflation can be attributed to a number of factors including the reduction in global inflation rat...

A Statistical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rate Behaviour in Nigeria's Auction

"In the attempt to explain some of the possible causes of the instability, particularly in the principal currency, our study looked at the macroeconomic policy characteristics of all six phases of the auction system between September 26 1986 and D...

Assessing Export Supply Constraints: Methodology, Data, Measurement

"This paper develops a research framework to assess the constraints to export supply in low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It begins with a review of theory and evidence on export development in low- income countries in section 2. It then...

Current Global Crisis and Macroeconomic Implications of AID-financed Public Investments: Evidence from Tanzania

"In this paper we discuss the macroeconomic implications of variations in AID inflows for Tanzania using an economy-wide dynamic CGE model. The major conclusions coming out from this work is that productivity effects matter. If additional aid and ...

Exchange Rate Depreciation and the Structure of Sectoral Prices in Nigeria under an Alternative Pricing Regime, 1986—89

"In this study, the impact of exchange rate depreciation witnessed in Nigeria between 1986 and 1989 on the structure of sectoral prices under alternative pricing regimes was investigated. To this end, a model useful in simulating these impacts was...

Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Reform in Ethiopia

"This paper summarizes the macroeconomic consequences of an over-valued currency. It describes the extent of foreign exchange misalignment in Ethiopia and its impact on the foreign exchange rate and the premium obtained through commodity smuggling...

Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation in Tanzania

"The study examines the influence of the major determinants of inflation with a particular focus on the role of exchange rate policy changes. The gradual change in policy orientation from “controls” to “market” in Tanzania is associated with a cha...

Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-Traditional Exports Performance:Zambia, 1965–1999

"This study estimated an error correction model of the impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on the performance of non-traditional exports for Zambia between 1965 and 1999. Using a generalized autoregressive conditional hetero-scedasti...

External Aid Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate in Ghana

"This paper develops an empirical model for Ghana’s real exchange rate with special focus on foreign aid. The novelty of this study is the interfacing of exports with a policy environment, using aid as proxy, to see how it affects export performa...

Policy Modelling in Agriculture: Testing the Response of Agriculture to Adjustment Policies in Nigeria

"This study achieves two objectives. First, it specifies, estimates and solves a basic agricultural policy model that could be used to evaluate the effects of policies targeting the agricultural sector such as the adjustment programme. The model...

Price and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation, (1970-1993)

"This paper investigates the relationship between domestic and foreign price levels and the exchange rate and other macro-variables. In the first part, the real exchange rate is estimated as a cointegrating vector that spans the variables in a pur...

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