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Divided We Stand: Libya's Enduring Conflicts

"After the 20 August 2011 fall of Tripoli and in the wake of the 23 October formal end of hostilities, communal conflicts broke out across Libya. Some grew directly out of the 2011 conflict and activities of the newly formed revolutionary brigades t…

Beyond Turf Wars: Managing the Post Coup Transition in Guinea Bissau

"This report discusses the April coup, its causes and consequences. It analyses the transition that has ensued, with particular attention to the complex diplomatic struggle that has unfolded, and assesses whether and under what conditions the trans…

Rhodesia's Constitutional Problems

This paper puts into words what the author thinks the results of a possible future constitutional settlement might look like, so that those who are engaged in attempting to reach that settlement can look at the possible results of that settlement in…

The Kenyan Military Intervention in Somalia

"The government’s hasty, insufficiently prepared decision to intervene militarily in Somalia will have profound consequences for stability in both countries. Al-Shabaab now clearly intends not only to destabilise the North Eastern Province, but als…

Mali: Avoiding Escalation

"This report is published at a time of evident polarisation in the positions held by the multiple actors in this crisis and it is proving increasingly difficult for the most moderate to make their voices heard. It provides a detailed account of the …

Lost in Transition: The World According to Egypt’s SCAF

"As this report goes to press, the political situation is experiencing dizzying developments – from the collapse of the process designed to draft a new constitution, to the apparent disquali-fication of three of the most significant presidential can…

Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia: An intricate process

'In the midst of Somalia’s decades of conflict, al-Shabaab, a Somalia-based terrorist group with al-Qaeda links, has become particularly noticeable not only nationally but also regionally. Foreign intervention, therefore, is no new phenomenon in Som…

Pride, Conflict and Complexity: Applying Dynamical Systems Theory to Understand Local Conflict in South Sudan

'South Sudan has experienced deadly conflict for much of the last five decades. While most attention has focused on South Sudan’s civil war with the now Republic of Sudan to the north, in reality, inter- related conflicts persist in multiple layers …

Côte d’Ivoire: Continuing the Recovery

"Six months after the end of the post-electoral crisis, Côte d’Ivoire must consolidate its return to stability and plan for long-term stability. The return to economic growth and the government’s efforts to improve governance should be recognised bu…

Eastern Congo: The ADF-NALU’s Lost Rebellion

"The fight against armed groups in eastern Congo continues to be viewed through a military lens, but it would be wise to avoid another ineffective military operation. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the UN, the DRC an…

Curbing Violence in Nigeria (I) : The Jos Crisis

"This report, the first in a series that examines insecurity in three regions of Nigeria, explores the dynamics of the recurring violence in Plateau state predominantly as a settler indigene issue. It situates the violence within the historical evol…

Cote d'Ivoire : Defusing Tensions

"A volatile security situation and mounting political tensions are threatening Côte d’Ivoire’s recovery. In the last few months the country has been subjected to a series of deadly attacks, whose targets have included: a police station, an importan…

Conflict Trends Issue 2 2004

"This special edition of Conflict Trends is dedicated to giving an overview of peacekeeping in Africa. It explores peacekeeping from a global United Nations and African perspective, and examines various African case studies. It is our hope that it w…

Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (I): War in South Kordofan

"The war in South Kordofan shows every sign of having settled into a strategic stalemate in which the government is unable to dislodge the rebels entrenched in the Nuba Mountains, and the SPLM-N and its allies are incapable of holding much territor…

The Never-Ending Pursuit of the Lord’s Resistance Army: An Analysis of the Regional Cooperative Initiative for the Elimination of the LRA

“There has recently been heightened concern regarding the activities of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), one of the most deadly insurgent movements in Africa. The LRA can best be described as a quasireligious-rebel armed group that began operating …

After Mubarak The Politics of Modern Military Pharaohs

"In recent weeks Egypt has seen perhaps the greatest destabilisation of its political, economic, and social order since the end of the Muhammad Ali Dynasty in 1952. The ouster of President Hosni Mubarak came after an eighteen-day public protest in C…

The Future of Intrastate Conflict in Africa More Violence or Greater Peace?

"This paper analyses future trends for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs) model. After reviewing the main post-Cold War patterns of conflict and instability on the continent, the paper discusses seven key…

Turning Points in Transition The Story of South Africa's Road to Peace

"The aim of this book is to learn from the remarkable period in our history – the few years from 1989 to 1998 – during which South Africa experienced a political transition. We will be asking about the lessons that emerged from these years – and wil…

Diamonds and Clubs: The Militarized Control of Diamonds and Power in Zimbabwe

"This report makes several other contentions. The first is that what is occurring in the two contested diamond areas — Marange in the eastern province of Manicaland and River Ranch in the south — cannot be seen in isolation. They are inextricably li…

The Chinese Stance on the Darfur Conflict

"China’s role in Sudan is one of the most closely watched and, in many circles, controversial relationships on the continent. This paper provides a Sudanese perspective and argues that, far from profiting from its close ties with Khartoum, the Chine…

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