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Financing the Economic Stabilization and Growth Programme (Zambia Plus) in the Shadow of the IMF

This policy paper was prompted by a protracted deliberation between the Zambian Government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding a Fund-supported economic programme. The Zambian authorities began contemplating an IMF “bailout package…

Taking the Road less Travelled: In Pursuit of Fiscal Consolidation- “Delivering Fiscal Consolidation for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth”

For the fourth year in a row, Zambia’s Budget in 2019 will focus on fiscal consolidation. Clearly, the country’s approaches to fiscal management over the past few years did not deliver the desired fiscal outcomes. Most likely, this is because some w…

In Search of Zambia’s ‘Hidden’ Public Debt

There is a growing concern from a number of analysts who believe that the true level of public debt may be higher than what is being reported officially. The cover story in this newsletter strives to provide insights on the growing concern of “hidd…

Revisiting the Jobs Story: Employment Targeting in the Macroeconomic Framework

All around the world, labour employment is seen as a fundamental activity for earning incomes and securing livelihoods for people and families. Economies are therefore often preoccupied with the business of creating of jobs. The objective of the stu…

Institutional Preparedness for Urban Public Transport Reforms in Zambia

Zambia’s urban public transport, largely made up of intra-city minibuses, does not meet the international standards of convenience, reliability and affordability, which describes an effective public transport system. The 2013 ZIPAR paper “Trip Model…

More and Better Jobs: Flagship Project Final Report

Zambia’s employment challenge is about both a lack of jobs and a poor quality of jobs. Recent statistics from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) show that the (standard) unemployment rate, at 12.6% of the labour force in 2017 compared to 7.9% in …

The ZIPAR Quarterly Issue 1

"This quarterly newsletter takes a look at tax evasion still being a challenge in Zambia, enhancing export performance in Zambia and innovative ways of bridging the financial gap for the poor. The cover story "Lusaka needs Public Transport Reforms"…

Comparison of Welfare Status of Districts in Zambia

"In this paper we make welfare comparisons among districts of Zambia using multidimensional wellbeing indicators observed at the household level. The comparisons are conducted using a first order dominance approach developed by Arndt et al. It is as…

The Birth, Death and Survival of Exports in Zambia 1999 - 2011

"This paper deals with the dynamics of Zambia’s export performance, analyzing the birth, death and persistence of exporting in various products and destinations. We use a framework that has recently proliferated in international trade to decompose t…

Resource Allocation Model for the Constituency Development Fund

"The research reported on in this paper has calculated a composite index of deprivation using 2010 Census data, drawing on the experience of similar initiatives in other countries and using internationally accepted statistical techniques. This index…

The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class in Zambia

"The middle class is increasingly becoming a topical issue in Zambia. However, the lack of a definitive measure of the middle class in the country makes it difficult to have targeted policies on this group of people, perceived worldwide to be the dr…

Constraints on the Demand for Youth Labour in Zambia

"Zambia is one of many developing countries struggling to create adequate employment opportunities for its people, especially in the formal economy. Unemployment is highest among youths (15–24 years old) and particularly affects those without ski…

Creating and Wasting Fiscal Space: Zambian Fiscal Performance 2002–2011

"Following three decades of economic mismanagement and decline, Zambia has experienced sustained economic growth since the turn of the century. The combination of rapid growth, reduced public expenditure, increased mining taxation and debt relief he…

Mining Tax in Zambia

"With some of the worst poverty statistics in Africa, Zambia appears to have little to show for a century of mining. But given good policies, the country’s considerable mineral wealth clearly represents a real opportunity to grow the economy and tac…

What do Regional Trade Reforms mean for Zambia?

"Zambia is participating actively in regional integration programmes, but little is known about the impacts of tariff reforms associated with such initiatives. This paper assesses the potential effects for Zambia of the trade reforms implied in both…

Who are the Middle class in Zambia?

"The middle class is increasingly becoming a topical issue in Zambia. However, the lack of a definitive measure of the middle class in the country makes it difficult to have targeted policies towards this group of people, perceived worldwide to be t…

Economic Profiling of the Creative Industries: A Desk Review

"The UN’s Creative Economy Report 2010 notes the increasing acceptance of the role of the creative economy as a leading sector in generating economic growth, employment and trade, and that creative industries are among the most dynamic sectors of …

Accelerating Export Growth in Zambia

"Export-transactions data for the period 1999-2011 in Zambia suggests that much of the growth in the value of exports has been driven by the contribution of new exporters than pre-existing exporters. The catastrophic growth among pre-existing export…

The ZIPAR Quarterly Issue 2

In ‘Eurobonds: Weighing Risks against gains’ there has been recent media speculation about the government issuing another Eurobond – the third in two years. This has resulted in apprehensions in some quarters of the economy regarding the risks assoc…

Making Every Kilometre Count: Prioritising Road Infrastructure Spending

The policy brief presents an assessment of the importance of different road sections and corridors prioritized based on their transportation efficiency, accessibility and socio-economic importance. To do that, a nation-wide travel demand model coupl…

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