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Financing the Economic Stabilization and Growth Programme (Zambia Plus) in the Shadow of the IMF

This policy paper was prompted by a protracted deliberation between the Zambian Government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding a Fund-supported economic programme. The Zambian authorities began contemplating an IMF “bailout package…

Economic Distress and the Inevitability of an Economic Recovery Programme

This policy insights paper explains why the economic recovery programme dubbed Zambia Plus will be absolutely essential for Zambia from 2017 onward. The paper highlights the scale of the challenge of Zambia’s 2015/2016 economic downturn, which neces…

Are Interest Payments on Debt Derailing Fiscal Consolidation?

This policy brief provides a review of the performance of the first quarter of the 2018 National Budget. The paper provides context by looking at both the revenue and expenditure trends during the last three years when Government instituted some fis…

Analytical Brief of the 2019 Social Sector Budget: 'A Call for Fairness and Elimination of Wastage'

The 2019 National Budget comes at a time when the Government is facing fiscal constraints. Nevertheless, the Government will still have to deliver essential social services to its population to build on progress made in the past in order to safeguar…

Reversing Zambia’s High Risk of Debt Distress

With about a year into implementation of the 2017 to 2019 Medium Term Debt Strategy, this paper gives a synopsis of the strategy. It delves into each of the pillars of the strategy and analyses the pros and cons of each and assesses whether the pil…

Taking the Road less Travelled: In Pursuit of Fiscal Consolidation- “Delivering Fiscal Consolidation for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth”

For the fourth year in a row, Zambia’s Budget in 2019 will focus on fiscal consolidation. Clearly, the country’s approaches to fiscal management over the past few years did not deliver the desired fiscal outcomes. Most likely, this is because some w…

In Search of Zambia’s ‘Hidden’ Public Debt

There is a growing concern from a number of analysts who believe that the true level of public debt may be higher than what is being reported officially. The cover story in this newsletter strives to provide insights on the growing concern of “hidd…

Revisiting the Jobs Story: Employment Targeting in the Macroeconomic Framework

All around the world, labour employment is seen as a fundamental activity for earning incomes and securing livelihoods for people and families. Economies are therefore often preoccupied with the business of creating of jobs. The objective of the stu…

Debt Servicing and the Delivery of Social Services: Mid-Year Review of the 2018 Budget

This policy brief reviews the performance of the first half (January to June) of the 2018 National Budget, drawing on data from fiscal tables produced by the Ministry of Finance. A descriptive approach is employed in order to analyse the data and i…

China-Zambia Relations in Development Cooperation: Towards Concluding some Unfinished Business

More formally, what are some of the profound elements of unfinished business in China-Zambia relations which tie to Zambia’s developmental goals and aspirations, including those in the Vision 2030? This policy brief sought to undertake a critical c…

Institutional Preparedness for Urban Public Transport Reforms in Zambia

Zambia’s urban public transport, largely made up of intra-city minibuses, does not meet the international standards of convenience, reliability and affordability, which describes an effective public transport system. The 2013 ZIPAR paper “Trip Model…

“Blanket” Fuel and Electricity Subsidies Did Not Offer Much Benefit to Zambia’s Poor

This paper offers an alternative perspective to the motion on anti-abolition of subsidies. We argue that during their existence, the fuel and electricity subsidies had benefitted the poor far less than they had done any other social groups in Zamb…

The ZIPAR Quarterly: Issue 9

The cover story is on the widely debated re-establishment of a national airline. The former national airline graced the skies for the last time more than two decades ago before it was grounded due to various reasons among them financial mismanagemen…

More and Better Jobs: Flagship Project Final Report

Zambia’s employment challenge is about both a lack of jobs and a poor quality of jobs. Recent statistics from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) show that the (standard) unemployment rate, at 12.6% of the labour force in 2017 compared to 7.9% in …

State of Financial Cooperatives in Zambia: A Viable Option for Increasing Financial Inclusion?

This policy brief presents the summary findings of a study on Promoting Financial Cooperatives (FCs) in Zambia that was conducted between 2017 and 2018 with financial support from the Rural Finance Expansion Program (RUFEP), Ministry of Commerce Tra…

The ZIPAR Quarterly Issue 1

"This quarterly newsletter takes a look at tax evasion still being a challenge in Zambia, enhancing export performance in Zambia and innovative ways of bridging the financial gap for the poor. The cover story "Lusaka needs Public Transport Reforms"…

Comparison of Welfare Status of Districts in Zambia

"In this paper we make welfare comparisons among districts of Zambia using multidimensional wellbeing indicators observed at the household level. The comparisons are conducted using a first order dominance approach developed by Arndt et al. It is as…

The Birth, Death and Survival of Exports in Zambia 1999 - 2011

"This paper deals with the dynamics of Zambia’s export performance, analyzing the birth, death and persistence of exporting in various products and destinations. We use a framework that has recently proliferated in international trade to decompose t…

Resource Allocation Model for the Constituency Development Fund

"The research reported on in this paper has calculated a composite index of deprivation using 2010 Census data, drawing on the experience of similar initiatives in other countries and using internationally accepted statistical techniques. This index…

The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class in Zambia

"The middle class is increasingly becoming a topical issue in Zambia. However, the lack of a definitive measure of the middle class in the country makes it difficult to have targeted policies on this group of people, perceived worldwide to be the dr…

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