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Kenya's 2013 Elections

"This year’s elections in Kenya will be the first since the 2007-2008 post-election violence that left more than 1,000 dead and over 300,000 displaced and the 2010 adoption of a new constitution. The bloodshed was only ended after intense mediati...

Lost in Transition: The World According to Egypt’s SCAF

"As this report goes to press, the political situation is experiencing dizzying developments – from the collapse of the process designed to draft a new constitution, to the apparent disquali-fication of three of the most significant presidential c...

Kenyan Somali Islamist Radicalisation

"Islamist radicalism in Somalia is reaching into Kenya. The cross-border network Al-Shabaab has built is attempting to radicalise youth to fight in Somalia and conduct terrorist attacks in their own country. This problem has become more severe wit...

Côte d’Ivoire: Continuing the Recovery

"Six months after the end of the post-electoral crisis, Côte d’Ivoire must consolidate its return to stability and plan for long-term stability. The return to economic growth and the government’s efforts to improve governance should be recognised ...

Divided We Stand: Libya's Enduring Conflicts

"After the 20 August 2011 fall of Tripoli and in the wake of the 23 October formal end of hostilities, communal conflicts broke out across Libya. Some grew directly out of the 2011 conflict and activities of the newly formed revolutionary brigades...

Ethiopia After Meles

"For more than two decades, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi managed Ethiopia’s political, ethnic and religious divides and adroitly kept the TFPL and EPRDF factions under tight control by concentrating power, gradually closing political space and stif...

Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (V): Making Sense of Libya

"The character of the Libyan crisis today arises from the complex but so far evidently indecisive impact of the UN-authorised military intervention, now formally led by NATO, in what had already become a civil war. NATO’s intervention saved the a...

Congo: The Electoral Dilemma

"After four years of electoral inertia and in a stalled democratic process, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is preparing its second set of democratic elections in a hurry and on a rolling calendar. Opposition parties are trying to unite, ...

Divisions in Sudan's Ruling Party and the Threat to the Country's Future Stability

"When the South officially secedes, on 9 July 2011, the North’s problems will change little. The National Congress Party (NCP) has not addressed the root causes of Sudan’s chronic conflicts and has exacerbated ethnic and regional divisions. Facin...

Zimbabwe: The Road to Reform or Another Dead End?

"Intensified violence against those deemed to be ZANUPF enemies has exposed the limitations of Zimbabwe’s much delayed reform process and threatens to derail the Global Political Agreement (GPA). President Mugabe’s call for early elections has in...

Politics and Transition in the New South Sudan

"South Sudan’s political and security landscape has evolved considerably since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, but the most notable domestic changes may unfold now that the January 2011 self-determination referend...

Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (I): Egypt Victorious?

"It is early days, and the true measure of what the Egyptian people have accomplished has yet to fully sink in. Some achievements are as clear as they are stunning. Over a period of less than three weeks, they challenged conventional chestnuts ab...

Negotiating Sudan’s North-South Future

"Sudan’s fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is entering its final phase, and a critical vote on Southern self-determination looms, but foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid. In addition to a hand...

Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?

"The April 2011 general elections – if credible and peaceful – would reverse the degeneration of the franchise since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, yield more representative and legitimate institutions and restore faith in a democrati...

Somalia: The Transitional Government on Life Support

"Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has squandered the goodwill and support it received and achieved little of significance in the two years it has been in office. It is inept, increasingly corrupt and hobbled by President Sharif’s w...

Dangerous Little Stones: Diamonds in the Central African Republic

"In the diamond mines of the Central African Republic (CAR), extreme poverty and armed conflict put thousands of lives in danger. President François Bozizé keeps tight control of the diamond sector to enrich and empower his own ethnic group but do...

Northern Nigeria: Background to Conflict

"Violence in northern Nigeria has flared up periodically over the last 30 years. Mainly in the form of urban riots, it has pitted Muslims against Christians and has seen confrontations between different Islamic sects. Although there have been some...

Zimbabwe: Political and Security Challenges to the Transition

"As Zimbabwe enters its second year under a unity government, the challenges to democratic transformation have come into sharp focus. Despite reasonable progress in restoring political and social stability, ending widespread repression and stabili...

Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and its Discontents

Excerpt: "The Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia’s political system. The regime transformed the hitherto centralized state into the Fed...

Somalia: To Move Beyond the Failed State

Excerpt: "Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of collapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of...

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