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"After the 20 August 2011 fall of Tripoli and in the wake of the 23 October formal end of hostilities, communal conflicts broke out across Libya. Some grew directly out of the 2011 conflict and activities of the newly formed revolutionary brigades t…
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"This report discusses the April coup, its causes and consequences. It analyses the transition that has ensued, with particular attention to the complex diplomatic struggle that has unfolded, and assesses whether and under what conditions the trans…
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"The government’s hasty, insufficiently prepared decision to intervene militarily in Somalia will have profound consequences for stability in both countries. Al-Shabaab now clearly intends not only to destabilise the North Eastern Province, but als…
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"This report is published at a time of evident polarisation in the positions held by the multiple actors in this crisis and it is proving increasingly difficult for the most moderate to make their voices heard. It provides a detailed account of the …
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"As this report goes to press, the political situation is experiencing dizzying developments – from the collapse of the process designed to draft a new constitution, to the apparent disquali-fication of three of the most significant presidential can…
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"Six months after the end of the post-electoral crisis, Côte d’Ivoire must consolidate its return to stability and plan for long-term stability. The return to economic growth and the government’s efforts to improve governance should be recognised bu…
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"The fight against armed groups in eastern Congo continues to be viewed through a military lens, but it would be wise to avoid another ineffective military operation. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the UN, the DRC an…
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"This report, the first in a series that examines insecurity in three regions of Nigeria, explores the dynamics of the recurring violence in Plateau state predominantly as a settler indigene issue. It situates the violence within the historical evol…
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"A volatile security situation and mounting political tensions are threatening Côte d’Ivoire’s recovery. In the last few months the country has been subjected to a series of deadly attacks, whose targets have included: a police station, an importan…
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"The war in South Kordofan shows every sign of having settled into a strategic stalemate in which the government is unable to dislodge the rebels entrenched in the Nuba Mountains, and the SPLM-N and its allies are incapable of holding much territor…
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"After decades of bad governance and misuse, the armed forces are a potential source of instability which could still throw Guinea and the region into chaos. At the very least, if not reformed thoroughly, they will continue to pose a threat to demo…
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"It is early days, and the true measure of what the Egyptian people have accomplished has yet to fully sink in. Some achievements are as clear as they are stunning. Over a period of less than three weeks, they challenged conventional chestnuts abou…
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"The situation in Mali remains confused six months after President ATT was overthrown. Already destabilised by Tuareg and Islamist armed rebellions that took control of the north, the coup completed the disintegration of the Malian state. Partly due…
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"Although it should provide development opportunities,renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) represents a real threat to stability in a still vulnerable post-conflict country. Exploration has begun, but oil prospecting is…
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Peace talks between the Ugandan government and the insurgent Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) are moving in the right direction, but the core issues – justice, security and livelihoods – are still to be resolved and require difficult decisions, includin…
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The dispute over the Abyei region is the most volatile aspect of Sudan’s 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and risks unravelling that increasingly shaky deal. The CPA granted the disputed territory, which has a significant percentage of Sudan…
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In late April 2001, lethal provocations by elements of Algeria’s National Gendarmerie triggered protracted and deadly rioting in Kabylia. That the unrest from Kabylia’s Black Spring continues to this day reflects the political system’s nation-wide f…
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While the international community has made great strides in improving the security situation in Sierra Leone, Liberia remains a wellspring for continued conflict stretching across Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Given the regional ambitions of its…
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The international community is often left to bemoan the fact that it lacks effective early warning tools for major humanitarian crises and conflicts. Yet, today in Liberia it is presented with almost a textbook case of all the major warning signs of…
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President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda were once called the "new breed" of African leaders but hopes that they can deliver peace and prosperity to their countries are being severely shaken. In early November t…
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