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Boko Haram on the Back Foot ?

The Lake Chad states should not too quickly proclaim “mission accomplished”, though the military response to Boko Haram has become more cogent. Even if they are forced to abandon their guerrilla war, or are made to abandon all territorial pretensi...

Nigeria: The Challenge of Military Reform

Nigeria’s military, once among Africa’s strongest and a mainstay of regional peacekeeping, it has become a flawed force. The initially heavy-handed, slow response to the Islamist Boko Haram insurgency raised serious concerns, and its human rights ...

Kenya’s Somali North East: Devolution and Security

There is a worrying loss of faith in the capacity of the state, at the core of the security crisis in the North East – and with Kenya in general, whether in centralized or devolved form, to deliver collective security and find a just solution to l...

Instruments of Pain (IV): The Food Crisis in North East Nigeria

Approximately five million people in the region of east Nigeria (8.5 million across the wider Lake Chad basin) are facing severe food insecurity. This humanitarian crisis in north east Nigeria runs the risk of growing worse. This primarily is a re...

Zimbabwe’s Very Peculiar Coup

Zimbabwe’s military has detained the country’s 93-year-old President Robert Mugabe and his wife, Grace Mugabe, and taken control of the streets of the capital and the main television station. The next step – apparently, a legitimate-looking transf...

The Central Sahel: A Perfect Sandstorm

The Sahel, often seen as a haven for armed radical groups, this area is the latest new frontier in the West’s counter-terrorism campaign. This report concentrates on a vertical axis between southern Libya and Northern Nigeria, with a relatively st...

Sudan: The Prospects for “National Dialogue”

President Omar al-Bashir promised prospects for an inclusive national dialogue in January 2014 . This promise is fading, making a soft-landing end to Sudan’s crises more doubtful. Sceptics who warned that the ruling party was unwilling and unable...

Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (I): Egypt Victorious?

"It is early days, and the true measure of what the Egyptian people have accomplished has yet to fully sink in. Some achievements are as clear as they are stunning. Over a period of less than three weeks, they challenged conventional chestnuts ab...

Guinea: Reforming the Army

"After decades of bad governance and misuse, the armed forces are a potential source of instability which could still throw Guinea and the region into chaos. At the very least, if not reformed thoroughly, they will continue to pose a threat to de...

The Kivus: The Forgotten Crucible of the Congo Conflict

December 2002 witnessed the signing of a power sharing agreement between Congolese parties under the auspices of the UN Special Envoy, Mustapha Niasse, and South Africa that should lead to finalisation of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and a transit...

Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the Balance

Sudan's window of opportunity threatens to become a missed opportunity if the peace process is not revitalised in the near future. Escalation of fighting around the oil fields, increasing use by the government of helicopter gunships against civili...

Darfur Deadline: A New International Action Plan

The international response to the crisis in the western Sudanese region of Darfur remains limp and inadequate, its achievements so far desperately slight. The UN Security Council must, by its review deadline of 30 August 2004, endorse a new intern...

Darfur Rising: Sudan's New Crisis

Sudan, where prospects for peace had looked so promising for much of 2003, has become a potential horror story in 2004. The rapid onset of war in its western region of Darfur has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises -- thousands de...

Dialogue or Destruction? Organising for Peace as the War in Sudan Escalates

Sudan's civil war, already one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II, has entered its most destructive phase to date. Oil revenues have allowed the government to purchase increasingly lethal weapons, more effectively pursue population-clea...

Garang's Death: Implications for Peace in Sudan

The Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) leadership has acted quickly so far to regroup and reorganise, but the loss in a fatal helicopter crash on 30 July 2005 of John Garang, the only leader the movement has known in its 21 years, cr...

How Kabila Lost His Way: The Performance of Laurent Désiré Kabila's Government

A continental war has begun in Africa. It reaches almost without interruption from the Red Sea to the Atlantic Ocean. Whereas some of the conflicts along this path started decades ago, a new phase involving more than a dozen states has now begun. ...

Sudan: Now or Never in Darfur

A month after the international community solemnly marked the tenth anniversary of the Rwandan genocide in April 2004 with promises of "never again", it faces a man-made humanitarian catastrophe in western Sudan (Darfur) that can easily become nea...

Côte d'Ivoire: "The War Is Not Yet Over"

"The war is not yet over", an ICG mission to Côte d'Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Côte d'Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down. If the country goes back to war, it could well ta...

Congo Crisis: Military Intervention in Ituri

The district of Ituri, in Oriental Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been the theatre of spiralling violence bordering on genocide that urgently needs to be stopped. A French-led Interim Emergency Multinational Force (IEMF) is bein...

Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next?

The 31 March 2005 parliamentary elections that confirmed the full control of President Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF government were neither free nor fair and disappointed those who hoped they might mark a turn away from the crisis that has domina...

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