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"After the 20 August 2011 fall of Tripoli and in the wake of the 23 October formal end of hostilities, communal conflicts broke out across Libya. Some grew directly out of the 2011 conflict and activities of the newly formed revolutionary brigades t…
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"For more than two decades, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi managed Ethiopia’s political, ethnic and religious divides and adroitly kept the TFPL and EPRDF factions under tight control by concentrating power, gradually closing political space and stifli…
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"This report discusses the April coup, its causes and consequences. It analyses the transition that has ensued, with particular attention to the complex diplomatic struggle that has unfolded, and assesses whether and under what conditions the trans…
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"This report analyses how the control of the institutions by the ruling party and the boycott of the 2010 elections by the main opposition parties made the power-sharing system defined by the 2000 Arusha agreement irrelevant. This deal was instrumen…
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"Since Bosco Ntaganda’s mutiny in April 2012 and the subsequent creation of the 23 March rebel movement (M23), violence has returned to the Kivus. However today’s crisis bears the same hallmarks as yesterday’s, a consequence of the failure to implem…
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"The government’s hasty, insufficiently prepared decision to intervene militarily in Somalia will have profound consequences for stability in both countries. Al-Shabaab now clearly intends not only to destabilise the North Eastern Province, but als…
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"Given its history, resources, ethno-political significance and location – at once both strategic and isolated – Unity state is today a territory of unique importance and complexity. Instability must be considered in light of the complicated histor…
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"Somalis of all walks of life refer to Turkey’s arrival as a miracle and Godsend. But that honeymoon is ending. The famine’s back has been broken and Al-Shabaab has been pushed out of the capital – although it is still a serious threat. Now comes th…
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"This report is published at a time of evident polarisation in the positions held by the multiple actors in this crisis and it is proving increasingly difficult for the most moderate to make their voices heard. It provides a detailed account of the …
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"As this report goes to press, the political situation is experiencing dizzying developments – from the collapse of the process designed to draft a new constitution, to the apparent disquali-fication of three of the most significant presidential can…
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"Eighteen months after initiating the Arab spring, Tunisia still can boast of an ongoing, successful transition. The former regime, which came to symbolise corruption and social injustice, is gone and democratic gains are palpable. Yet, formidable s…
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"Since January 2011, not only has the former leader, President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, fallen from power, but an entire system has been overwhelmed, if not overhauled, relatively peacefully and with the support of a fairly broad consensus. The coun…
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"Islamist radicalism in Somalia is reaching into Kenya. The cross-border network Al-Shabaab has built is attempting to radicalise youth to fight in Somalia and conduct terrorist attacks in their own country. This problem has become more severe with …
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"Six months after the end of the post-electoral crisis, Côte d’Ivoire must consolidate its return to stability and plan for long-term stability. The return to economic growth and the government’s efforts to improve governance should be recognised bu…
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"This year’s elections in Kenya will be the first since the 2007-2008 post-election violence that left more than 1,000 dead and over 300,000 displaced and the 2010 adoption of a new constitution. The bloodshed was only ended after intense mediation…
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"The fight against armed groups in eastern Congo continues to be viewed through a military lens, but it would be wise to avoid another ineffective military operation. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the UN, the DRC an…
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"This report, the first in a series that examines insecurity in three regions of Nigeria, explores the dynamics of the recurring violence in Plateau state predominantly as a settler indigene issue. It situates the violence within the historical evol…
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"A volatile security situation and mounting political tensions are threatening Côte d’Ivoire’s recovery. In the last few months the country has been subjected to a series of deadly attacks, whose targets have included: a police station, an importan…
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"The war in South Kordofan shows every sign of having settled into a strategic stalemate in which the government is unable to dislodge the rebels entrenched in the Nuba Mountains, and the SPLM-N and its allies are incapable of holding much territor…
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"Eritrea has been deeply troubled since independence in 1991. Following the devastating war with Ethiopia (1998- 2000), an authoritarian, militarised regime has further tightened political space, tolerating neither opposition nor dissent. Relation…
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