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Popular Protest in North African and the Middle East (II): Yemen Between Reform and Revolution

"Even before the popular wave from Tunisia and Egypt reached Yemen, President Saleh’s regime faced daunting challenges. In the north, it is battling the Huthi rebellion, in the south, an ever-growing secessionist movement. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian...

Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?

"The April 2011 general elections – if credible and peaceful – would reverse the degeneration of the franchise since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, yield more representative and legitimate institutions and restore faith in a democrati...

Somalia: The Transitional Government on Life Support

"Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has squandered the goodwill and support it received and achieved little of significance in the two years it has been in office. It is inept, increasingly corrupt and hobbled by President Sharif’s w...

Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (I): Egypt Victorious?

"It is early days, and the true measure of what the Egyptian people have accomplished has yet to fully sink in. Some achievements are as clear as they are stunning. Over a period of less than three weeks, they challenged conventional chestnuts ab...

Negotiating Sudan’s North-South Future

"Sudan’s fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is entering its final phase, and a critical vote on Southern self-determination looms, but foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid. In addition to a hand...

Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (V): Making Sense of Libya

"The character of the Libyan crisis today arises from the complex but so far evidently indecisive impact of the UN-authorised military intervention, now formally led by NATO, in what had already become a civil war. NATO’s intervention saved the a...

Congo: The Electoral Dilemma

"After four years of electoral inertia and in a stalled democratic process, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is preparing its second set of democratic elections in a hurry and on a rolling calendar. Opposition parties are trying to unite, ...

Divisions in Sudan's Ruling Party and the Threat to the Country's Future Stability

"When the South officially secedes, on 9 July 2011, the North’s problems will change little. The National Congress Party (NCP) has not addressed the root causes of Sudan’s chronic conflicts and has exacerbated ethnic and regional divisions. Facin...

Zimbabwe: The Road to Reform or Another Dead End?

"Intensified violence against those deemed to be ZANUPF enemies has exposed the limitations of Zimbabwe’s much delayed reform process and threatens to derail the Global Political Agreement (GPA). President Mugabe’s call for early elections has in...

Politics and Transition in the New South Sudan

"South Sudan’s political and security landscape has evolved considerably since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, but the most notable domestic changes may unfold now that the January 2011 self-determination referend...

Black Gold in the Congo : Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity

"Although it should provide development opportunities,renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) represents a real threat to stability in a still vulnerable post-conflict country. Exploration has begun, but oil prospecting ...

Liberia: How Sustainable is the Recovery?

"Liberia’s October 2011 general and presidential elections, the second since civil war ended in 2003, are an opportunity to consolidate its fragile peace and nascent democracy. Peaceful, free and fair elections depend on how well the National Ele...

Lessons from Nigeria’s 2011 Elections

"With the April 2011 general elections, Nigeria may have taken steps towards reversing the degeneration of its previous elections, but the work is not finished. Despite some progress, early and intensive preparations for the 2015 elections need t...

Uganda: No Resolution to Growing Tensions

"This background report provides the context for growing tensions and analyses the unresolved issues of national integration that plagued Ugandan governments long before independence. It examines the effect of the decision to reestablish the tradi...

Liberia: Time for Much-Delayed Reconciliation and Reform

"After a credible, though contentious, election, President Johnson Sirleaf is governing a still-divided country under a weak mandate. A fragile peace remains vulnerable to destabilisation by disputes over natural resources, a weak police force an...

Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed

"The next six months will be crucial for Somalia. The international community is taking a renewed interest in the country; the mandate of the feeble and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government (TFG) expires in a half-year; and emboldened tro...

A Strategy For Comprehensive Peace in Sudan

Lasting peace in Sudan requires a new strategy, one which tackles its multiple conflicts and potential conflicts in a consistent manner. The overwhelming international concentration on Darfur has come at the expense of the broader quest for pe...

Burundi: Democracy and Peace at Risk

Since the new, democratically elected government came to power in September 2005, the first since 1993, there has been marked deterioration in Burundi’s political climate. Led by the National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Def...

Congo: Consolidating The Peace

Elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo were a milestone in the peace process but much remains to be done to consolidate the gains. A return to full-scale war is unlikely but violence in Bas-Congo and Kinshasa in early 2007 with over 400 peo...

Congo: Staying Engaged after the Elections

On 6 December 2006, Joseph Kabila was sworn in as the first democratically elected president since Congolese independence, concluding a landmark electoral process largely devoid of major violence or gross irregularities. Democratic governance ...

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