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Kenya's 2013 Elections

"This year’s elections in Kenya will be the first since the 2007-2008 post-election violence that left more than 1,000 dead and over 300,000 displaced and the 2010 adoption of a new constitution. The bloodshed was only ended after intense mediati...

Eastern Congo: The ADF-NALU’s Lost Rebellion

"The fight against armed groups in eastern Congo continues to be viewed through a military lens, but it would be wise to avoid another ineffective military operation. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the UN, the DRC ...

Curbing Violence in Nigeria (I) : The Jos Crisis

"This report, the first in a series that examines insecurity in three regions of Nigeria, explores the dynamics of the recurring violence in Plateau state predominantly as a settler indigene issue. It situates the violence within the historical ev...

Cote d'Ivoire : Defusing Tensions

"A volatile security situation and mounting political tensions are threatening Côte d’Ivoire’s recovery. In the last few months the country has been subjected to a series of deadly attacks, whose targets have included: a police station, an import...

Uganda: No Resolution to Growing Tensions

"This background report provides the context for growing tensions and analyses the unresolved issues of national integration that plagued Ugandan governments long before independence. It examines the effect of the decision to reestablish the tradi...

Liberia: Time for Much-Delayed Reconciliation and Reform

"After a credible, though contentious, election, President Johnson Sirleaf is governing a still-divided country under a weak mandate. A fragile peace remains vulnerable to destabilisation by disputes over natural resources, a weak police force an...

Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed

"The next six months will be crucial for Somalia. The international community is taking a renewed interest in the country; the mandate of the feeble and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government (TFG) expires in a half-year; and emboldened tro...

Eastern Congo: Why Stabilisation Failed

"Since Bosco Ntaganda’s mutiny in April 2012 and the subsequent creation of the 23 March rebel movement (M23), violence has returned to the Kivus. However today’s crisis bears the same hallmarks as yesterday’s, a consequence of the failure to impl...

The Kenyan Military Intervention in Somalia

"The government’s hasty, insufficiently prepared decision to intervene militarily in Somalia will have profound consequences for stability in both countries. Al-Shabaab now clearly intends not only to destabilise the North Eastern Province, but a...

South Sudan: Compounding Instability in Unity State

"Given its history, resources, ethno-political significance and location – at once both strategic and isolated – Unity state is today a territory of unique importance and complexity. Instability must be considered in light of the complicated hist...

Assessing Turkey’s Role in Somalia

"Somalis of all walks of life refer to Turkey’s arrival as a miracle and Godsend. But that honeymoon is ending. The famine’s back has been broken and Al-Shabaab has been pushed out of the capital – although it is still a serious threat. Now comes ...

Mali: Avoiding Escalation

"This report is published at a time of evident polarisation in the positions held by the multiple actors in this crisis and it is proving increasingly difficult for the most moderate to make their voices heard. It provides a detailed account of th...

Lost in Transition: The World According to Egypt’s SCAF

"As this report goes to press, the political situation is experiencing dizzying developments – from the collapse of the process designed to draft a new constitution, to the apparent disquali-fication of three of the most significant presidential c...

Tunisia: Confronting Social and Economic Challenges

"Eighteen months after initiating the Arab spring, Tunisia still can boast of an ongoing, successful transition. The former regime, which came to symbolise corruption and social injustice, is gone and democratic gains are palpable. Yet, formidable...

Tunisia: Combatting Impunity, Restoring Security

"Since January 2011, not only has the former leader, President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, fallen from power, but an entire system has been overwhelmed, if not overhauled, relatively peacefully and with the support of a fairly broad consensus. The co...

Kenyan Somali Islamist Radicalisation

"Islamist radicalism in Somalia is reaching into Kenya. The cross-border network Al-Shabaab has built is attempting to radicalise youth to fight in Somalia and conduct terrorist attacks in their own country. This problem has become more severe wit...

Côte d’Ivoire: Continuing the Recovery

"Six months after the end of the post-electoral crisis, Côte d’Ivoire must consolidate its return to stability and plan for long-term stability. The return to economic growth and the government’s efforts to improve governance should be recognised ...

Divided We Stand: Libya's Enduring Conflicts

"After the 20 August 2011 fall of Tripoli and in the wake of the 23 October formal end of hostilities, communal conflicts broke out across Libya. Some grew directly out of the 2011 conflict and activities of the newly formed revolutionary brigades...

Ethiopia After Meles

"For more than two decades, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi managed Ethiopia’s political, ethnic and religious divides and adroitly kept the TFPL and EPRDF factions under tight control by concentrating power, gradually closing political space and stif...

Beyond Turf Wars: Managing the Post Coup Transition in Guinea Bissau

"This report discusses the April coup, its causes and consequences. It analyses the transition that has ensued, with particular attention to the complex diplomatic struggle that has unfolded, and assesses whether and under what conditions the tra...

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