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More than Propaganda A Review of Boko Haram’s Public Messages

The public statements of Boko Haram from its resurgence in 2010 until its split into two main factions in August 2016 is reviewed in this report. While Boko Haram (more accurately referred to as Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad prior to …

Reducing Violence in South Africa: From Policing to Prevention

South Africa is one of the 10 most violent countries in the world, despite having achieved massive reductions in homicide levels since 1994. Murder has increased annually over the past four years (2012/13-2015/16). This raises the question of whet…

How Boko Haram Specifically Targets Displaced People

Since 2009, Boko Haram has proven to be a highly adaptable foe, routinely realigning its tactics to suit changing circumstances. In recent years, this has increasingly involved focusing on soft targets, including displaced people (both refugees an…

Reducing Violence in South Africa: Resourcing Violence Prevention

Government budgets are much like household budgets. In households, we make decisions about how to allocate limited income to buy food, pay for education, transport, childcare and so on. In the same way, a government needs to make decisions about how…

Violence in Africa: Trends, Drivers and Prospects to 2023

This report analyses prospects for violence in Africa to 2023. It first presents recent conflict trends including slowly declining fatality rates in several countries, noting Africa’s large burden of non-state conflict and the increase in riots and…

How the AU can Promote Transitional Justice in South Sudan

The African Union is mandated to help South Sudan to ensure accountability for past human rights abuses through the establishment of a hybrid court. This mandate is derived from the Agreement for the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan, signed i…

Structural Pressures and Political Instability: Trajectories for Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa faces many structural pressures that increase the risk of political instability and violent conflict. Understanding the nature and trajectories of structural pressures is key for conflict prevention, development and peace buildi…

Damned to Desperation: The Gendered Nature of Disruptive Politics among South African Youth

South Africa’s youth are often portrayed in the media as being at the forefront of xenophobic attacks, looting foreign-owned stores and participating in social movements and disruptive protests. Young men are identified as more likely than young wo…

What will it take to Prevent Interpersonal Violence in South Africa?

This policy brief presents an analysis of six factors that stand in the way of effectively preventing interpersonal violence in South Africa, and suggests how they might be overcome. It is a product of the Dialogue Forum for evidence-based program…

Shared value: How Business can Support Children and Prevent Violence

As the world seeks sustainable solutions to rapid urbanisation, looking to redesign and create smart cities, identify strategies to alleviate climate change and develop future-fit children through the Sustainable Development Goals, most South Afri…

A Network of Violence Mapping a Criminal Gang Network in Cape Town

The study examined the characteristics of the structure, actors involved and types of interactions of a criminal network formed by a gang operating in Cape Town, South Africa. The analysis is based on data gathered from a case judgement in the Weste…

Africa's Conflict Burden in a Global Context

"This paper gives a snapshot of Africa’s conflict burden within a global context based on various prominent data providers. The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa follows the general global pattern of declining levels if measured in rela…

Africa's Current and Future Stability

This paper first presented the current trends of violence and instability in Africa and then modelled alternative future trends – these are uncertain and do not purport to be accurate predictions. In this paper it is speculated that the levels of ar…

At the Heart of Discontent Measuring Public Violence in South Africa

Strike action and civilian protests have become increasingly commonplace in South Africa. Although several institutions collect data on various forms of protest, the available information varies in quality, reliability, coverage and accessibility.…

Zimbabwe’s Reforms An Exercise in Credibility – or Pretence?

The reform ball have been firmly in ZANU-PF’s court for some time. The government has publicly committed itself to a reform process that is intended to help reconnect to international channels of credit and investment and an underlying confidence in…

The East African Community takes on the Burundi crisis

The East African Community has been a key player in attempts to resolve the ongoing instability in Burundi, since 2014. The organization recognized early on that a crisis was looming, however it waited too long to act at the highest level and was …

The AU and the ICGLR in Burundi

The Burundi crisis - brought on by the president’s decision to run for a third term – was a significant test of regional and continental organizations’ ability to effectively intervene in African member states experiencing instability. Emerging as …

Kenya's Neglected IDP's Internal Displacement and Vulnerability of Pastoralist Communities in Northern Kenya

"This report investigates the situation surrounding these displaced pastoralists. It examines the causes of their displacement, the legal basis for their protection and the shortcomings in responding to the problem. To address these, the report gi…

Besides Greed and Grievances Natural Resource Characteristics and Conflicts in Africa

"This paper addresses the debate on natural resources and conflict from the point that conceptualisations of the linkages between conflicts and natural resources have generally concentrated on the human aspects of the relationship. By so doing, the…

The Future of Intrastate Conflict in Africa More Violence or Greater Peace?

"This paper analyses future trends for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs) model. After reviewing the main post-Cold War patterns of conflict and instability on the continent, the paper discusses seven key…

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