International Crisis Group (ICG)

The International Crisis Group is generally recognized as the world’s leading independent, non-partisan, source of analysis and advice to governments, and intergovernmental bodies like the United Nations, European Union and World Bank, on the prevention and resolution of deadly conflict. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en.aspx

Library Articles

Kenya’s Coast: Devolution Disappointed

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Published: 2016
The enormous public expectations which was raised by the devolved government on Kenya’s coast have turned into disappointment. Patronage politics that marked the former centralized system has been replicated in the new counties, making government even more inefficient and expensive. Power is closely held, though political leadership is now local and leaders are suspicious of both national and...

Nigeria: The Challenge of Military Reform

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Published: 2016
Nigeria’s military, once among Africa’s strongest and a mainstay of regional peacekeeping, it has become a flawed force. The initially heavy-handed, slow response to the Islamist Boko Haram insurgency raised serious concerns, and its human rights record underscores a grave disconnect with civilians. President Muhammadu Buhari has taken some steps to reverse the decline and has recorded...

South Sudan's South : Conflict in the Equatoria's

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Published: 2016
Following Riek Machar’s return to Juba in April and the formation of a transitional government, marked the most significant milestone of the August 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) that ended the twenty-month civil war. Though, the ARCSS, designed to address a war primarily fought between the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation...

Burundi : Anatomie du Troisième Mandat / Burundi: A Dangerous Third Term

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Published: 2016
A year after the start of the crisis triggered by President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term, the situation remains critical. The radicalisation of the regime, which had been steadily increasing since the second post-conflict elections in 2010 and intensified by tensions over the third term in 2015, has seen the rise of the most hard-line leaders of the ruling party. These...

Boko Haram on the Back Foot ?

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Published: 2016
The Lake Chad states should not too quickly proclaim “mission accomplished”, though the military response to Boko Haram has become more cogent. Even if they are forced to abandon their guerrilla war, or are made to abandon all territorial pretensions in Nigeria’s north east and the Lake Chad area, some Boko Haram militants at least are likely to seek to continue their insurgency in some form,...

Implementing Peace and Security Architecture (III): West Africa

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Published: 2016
Three case studies discussed in this document, illustrated ECOWAS’s interventions in crisis situations during the last fifteen years and prompt a series of observations. Firstly, this particularly troubled region is marked by a succession and juxtaposition of crises and conflicts of variable intensity in most member countries. Secondly, both on the political and diplomatic fronts, the...

Sudan's Islamists : From Salvation to Survival

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Published: 2016
The well-established decline of a radical Islamist project at the heart of the NCP and the dynamics discussed in this briefing, point to major shifts in Sudan’s relations within the Middle East and with its immediate east African neighbours. This should also change the context in which many other international actors, including the U.S. and UK, relate to Khartoum. A more pragmatic approach from...

Zimbabwe: Stranded in Stasis

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Published: 2016
For over fifteen years, Zimbabwe has been trapped in a political and economic crisis of varying intensity. Political dynamics, compounded by massive debt, policy incoherence and low domestic and international confidence, frustrate economic recovery. The few positive trends do little to improve the lot of most citizens or provide confidence in processes to build a constitutionally-rooted social...

Ethiopia: Governing the Faithful

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Published: 2016
The religion and religious tensions in Ethiopia, which are unique in many ways due to the millenia-long presence of both Christianity and Islam – reflect broader regional and global trends. The faith based revolutions have never before been experienced by the country. There was wars and violent extremism in neighbouring Sudan, Somalia and Kenya, but perceptions of discrimination and exclusion,...

Ethiopia : Governing the Faithful

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Published: 2016
Broader regional and global trends are reflected in the religion and religious tensions in Ethiopia - though in many ways unique due to the millennia-long presence of both Christianity and Islam. The country has not experienced anything like the faith-based revolutions, wars and violent extremism in neighbouring Sudan, Somalia and Kenya. However, perceptions of discrimination and exclusion, as...

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