International Crisis Group (ICG)

The International Crisis Group is generally recognized as the world’s leading independent, non-partisan, source of analysis and advice to governments, and intergovernmental bodies like the United Nations, European Union and World Bank, on the prevention and resolution of deadly conflict. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en.aspx

Library Articles

Burkina Faso: Transition, Act II

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Published: 2016
After the success of the elections of November 29th 2015, it is time to congratulate the transitional government which achieved the difficult mission of organizing the polls peacefully, as well as the Burkinabe political community for their sense of responsibility and the Burkinabe people for demonstrating once more its commitment to democracy. However, new Burkinabe authorities and...

Kenya’s Somali North East: Devolution and Security

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Published: 2015
There is a worrying loss of faith in the capacity of the state, at the core of the security crisis in the North East – and with Kenya in general, whether in centralized or devolved form, to deliver collective security and find a just solution to local conflicts. There are good arguments for and against the devolution of security, including in the northeastern countries. The initial experience of...

South Sudan: Keeping Faith with the IGAD Peace Process

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Published: 2015
With regard to contain and resolve the civil war, IGAD and its member states have contributed much time and political capital to this. Thus far, they have failed due to internal divisions and power struggles; centralization of decision-making and lack of institutionalization; and too much focus on political elites. It will require further political effort from IGAD to resolve its differences and...

Réforme et Stratégie Sécuritaire en Tunisie / Safety and Reform Policy in Tunisia

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Published: 2015
To ensure the implementation of a true public security policy, it is needed to address the internal problems of the interior security forces. This is essential so that political power is able to respond democratically, balanced and proportionate to the security challenges, as well as the expectations of the population. The country, although until now advancing successfully on the path to...

The Central Sahel: A Perfect Sandstorm

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Published: 2015
The Sahel, often seen as a haven for armed radical groups, this area is the latest new frontier in the West’s counter-terrorism campaign. This report concentrates on a vertical axis between southern Libya and Northern Nigeria, with a relatively stable but extremely vulnerable Niger at its centre. Although outside attention has largely been on the region stretching from Mauritania to Chad, the...

Congo : Is Democratic Change Possible ?

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Published: 2015
This report analyses the tense context in which the upcoming elections are to take place. Several risks are identified, linked to the sudden developments in the decentralisation process, the slow and non-consensual preparation of an overly ambitious electoral calendar as well as divisions within the ruling majority. It suggests different actions and steps for domestic, regional and international...

The Chaos in Darfur

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Published: 2015
Violence continues unabated in the Darfur region of Sudan’s far west. Some 450,000 persons were displaced in 2014 and another 100,000 in January 2015 alone. Since fighting erupted in 2003 some two million persons were displaced internally. The government remains wedded to a military approach and reluctant to pursue a negotiated national solution that would address all Sudan’s conflicts at once...

Elections in Burundi : Moment of Truth

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Published: 2015
The elections in Burundi will be decisive for this country and is scheduled to take place between the end of May and August 2015. The future of the present rulers (President Pierre Nkurunziza considers running for a third term) and, more importantly, the upholding of the 2000 Arusha agreement as the foundation for peace, are at stake. Popular protests and the precedent set by the fall of Burkina...

Sudan: The Prospects for “National Dialogue”

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Published: 2015
President Omar al-Bashir promised prospects for an inclusive national dialogue in January 2014 . This promise is fading, making a soft-landing end to Sudan’s crises more doubtful. Sceptics who warned that the ruling party was unwilling and unable to make needed concessions have been vindicated. Peacemaking in the Two Areas (Blue Nile and South Kordofan) and Darfur and potential merging of these...

The Central African Crisis : From Predation to Stabilisation

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Published: 2014
"The current crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) has sealed the fate of a state that depends on international aid and has long ceased to exist. Government has become little more than a patronage exercise, in which appointments to decisionmaking posts are based on ethnic criteria and clientelism. After the 1993 elections that brought Ange Félix Patassé to power, predation triumphed...

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