International Crisis Group (ICG)

The International Crisis Group is generally recognized as the world’s leading independent, non-partisan, source of analysis and advice to governments, and intergovernmental bodies like the United Nations, European Union and World Bank, on the prevention and resolution of deadly conflict. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en.aspx

Library Articles

Congo : Is Democratic Change Possible ?

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Published: 2015
This report analyses the tense context in which the upcoming elections are to take place. Several risks are identified, linked to the sudden developments in the decentralisation process, the slow and non-consensual preparation of an overly ambitious electoral calendar as well as divisions within the ruling majority. It suggests different actions and steps for domestic, regional and international...

The Chaos in Darfur

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Published: 2015
Violence continues unabated in the Darfur region of Sudan’s far west. Some 450,000 persons were displaced in 2014 and another 100,000 in January 2015 alone. Since fighting erupted in 2003 some two million persons were displaced internally. The government remains wedded to a military approach and reluctant to pursue a negotiated national solution that would address all Sudan’s conflicts at once...

Elections in Burundi : Moment of Truth

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Published: 2015
The elections in Burundi will be decisive for this country and is scheduled to take place between the end of May and August 2015. The future of the present rulers (President Pierre Nkurunziza considers running for a third term) and, more importantly, the upholding of the 2000 Arusha agreement as the foundation for peace, are at stake. Popular protests and the precedent set by the fall of Burkina...

Sudan: The Prospects for “National Dialogue”

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Published: 2015
President Omar al-Bashir promised prospects for an inclusive national dialogue in January 2014 . This promise is fading, making a soft-landing end to Sudan’s crises more doubtful. Sceptics who warned that the ruling party was unwilling and unable to make needed concessions have been vindicated. Peacemaking in the Two Areas (Blue Nile and South Kordofan) and Darfur and potential merging of these...

The Central African Crisis : From Predation to Stabilisation

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Published: 2014
"The current crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) has sealed the fate of a state that depends on international aid and has long ceased to exist. Government has become little more than a patronage exercise, in which appointments to decisionmaking posts are based on ethnic criteria and clientelism. After the 1993 elections that brought Ange Félix Patassé to power, predation triumphed...

A Cosmetic End to Madagascar's Crisis?

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Published: 2014
"Madagascar is a divided, impoverished, broken democracy that has suffered a “cyclical pattern from crisis to crisis, but the period in between each appears to be getting shorter”. Its latest crisis has proven particularly intense, drawn-out and damaging, politically, diplomatically and economically. In 2009, a military directorate took power from President Marc Ravalomanana and handed it to...

The Security Challenges of Pastoralism in Central Africa

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Published: 2014
"Since it began in prehistoric times, pastoralism in Africa has been a story of perpetual movement by cattle and their herders, who have adapted to the region’s climatic and security constraints over thousands of years. In Central Africa, transhumance began recently, as shown by the migration history of the Fulanis, one of the region’s largest communities of herders. Leaving northern Nigeria...

South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name

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Published: 2014
"The conflict that broke out on 15 December 2013 was decades in the making. The speed with which the SPLM and SPLA collapsed reveals the ephemeral nature of the “big tent” policy. The transition to more broadly representative political and military institutions clearly remained woefully unfinished, due to the lack of substantive SPLM and SPLA reform. The failure to reconcile political and...

Côte d’Ivoire’s Great West: Key to Reconciliation

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Published: 2014
"Western Côte d’Ivoire’s land, security and identity problems make this vast border territory the country’s most unstable area. Reconciliation has yet to begin there and communal tensions remain acute. Two administrative regions are especially problematic: Cavally and Guémon. Outside Abidjan, these are the two regions where the post-electoral crisis claimed the most victims and which saw the...

Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (III): The Limits of Darfur’s Peace Process

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Published: 2014
"This report is the third in a series analysing Sudan’s spreading conflicts. It focuses on why successive peace processes, in particular the latest, “Doha”, have not stopped the violence. Reflecting the views of government officials involved with Darfur, rebel factions and other Sudanese and international players, it offers solutions to the dilemma of whether to support more attainable...

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