International Crisis Group (ICG)

Library Articles

The Central African Crisis : From Predation to Stabilisation

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Published: 2014
"The current crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) has sealed the fate of a state that depends on international aid and has long ceased to exist. Government has become little more than a patronage exercise, in which appointments to decisionmaking posts are based on ethnic criteria and clientelism. After the 1993 elections that brought Ange Félix Patassé to power, predation triumphed...

A Cosmetic End to Madagascar's Crisis?

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Published: 2014
"Madagascar is a divided, impoverished, broken democracy that has suffered a “cyclical pattern from crisis to crisis, but the period in between each appears to be getting shorter”. Its latest crisis has proven particularly intense, drawn-out and damaging, politically, diplomatically and economically. In 2009, a military directorate took power from President Marc Ravalomanana and handed it to...

The Security Challenges of Pastoralism in Central Africa

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Published: 2014
"Since it began in prehistoric times, pastoralism in Africa has been a story of perpetual movement by cattle and their herders, who have adapted to the region’s climatic and security constraints over thousands of years. In Central Africa, transhumance began recently, as shown by the migration history of the Fulanis, one of the region’s largest communities of herders. Leaving northern Nigeria...

South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name

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Published: 2014
"The conflict that broke out on 15 December 2013 was decades in the making. The speed with which the SPLM and SPLA collapsed reveals the ephemeral nature of the “big tent” policy. The transition to more broadly representative political and military institutions clearly remained woefully unfinished, due to the lack of substantive SPLM and SPLA reform. The failure to reconcile political and...

Côte d’Ivoire’s Great West: Key to Reconciliation

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Published: 2014
"Western Côte d’Ivoire’s land, security and identity problems make this vast border territory the country’s most unstable area. Reconciliation has yet to begin there and communal tensions remain acute. Two administrative regions are especially problematic: Cavally and Guémon. Outside Abidjan, these are the two regions where the post-electoral crisis claimed the most victims and which saw the...

Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (III): The Limits of Darfur’s Peace Process

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Published: 2014
"This report is the third in a series analysing Sudan’s spreading conflicts. It focuses on why successive peace processes, in particular the latest, “Doha”, have not stopped the violence. Reflecting the views of government officials involved with Darfur, rebel factions and other Sudanese and international players, it offers solutions to the dilemma of whether to support more attainable...

Mali: Reform or Relapse

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Published: 2014
"This report is based on several dozen interviews conducted in Bamako, Gao, Niamey, Dakar and Paris with Malian political and military actors, their foreign partners and Malian civil society representatives in both the north and south of the country. It examines the challenges faced by the new government and President IBK and the other actors involved in stabilisation and institutional...

Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (I): War in South Kordofan

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Published: 2013
"The war in South Kordofan shows every sign of having settled into a strategic stalemate in which the government is unable to dislodge the rebels entrenched in the Nuba Mountains, and the SPLM-N and its allies are incapable of holding much territory in the lowlands. Each side hopes pressure from elsewhere will somehow change the calculations of its enemy, while the international community...

Kenya's 2013 Elections

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Published: 2013
"This year’s elections in Kenya will be the first since the 2007-2008 post-election violence that left more than 1,000 dead and over 300,000 displaced and the 2010 adoption of a new constitution. The bloodshed was only ended after intense mediation under African Union (AU) envoy and former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan that led to a power-sharing deal, the Kenya National Dialogue and...

Eastern Congo: The ADF-NALU’s Lost Rebellion

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Published: 2012
"The fight against armed groups in eastern Congo continues to be viewed through a military lens, but it would be wise to avoid another ineffective military operation. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the UN, the DRC and Uganda should therefore adopt a different approach that seeks to: Formulate an intelligence-based strategy to neutralise the ADF-NALU’s cross-...

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