Institute for Security Studies

The ISS was founded in 1991 as the Institute for Defence Policy by the current Executive Director, Dr Jakkie Cilliers, together with Mr PB Mertz. The Institute’s head office is in Pretoria, South Africa. Regional ISS offices are located in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dakar (Senegal) and Nairobi (Kenya). http://www.issafrica.org

Library Articles

Parched Prospects II - A Revised Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast for South Africa

Published: 2016
With water withdrawals currently exceeding reliable supply, it is presumed that South Africa is over exploiting its water resources at the national level. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper forecasts that withdrawals in all three sectors (municipal, industrial and agricultural) will increase over the next 20 years. Proposed interventions for increasing supply and...

Peace and Security Council Report Issue 78

The open sessions of the Peace and Security Council(PSC) in April 2016 focused on migration, natural resources and arms control. The question can be asked, how effective are these open sessions? In the Situation Analysis, the promising changes seen in Somalia is discussed, with thousands of visitors streaming into the country on commercial flights. Yet terror attacks by al-Shabaab are becoming...

Taking back the Seas Prospects for Africa’s Blue Economy

The international shipping industry is driven by fierce competition. The maritime trade history within Africa’s coastal waters has been characterized by foreign exploitation since the early colonial era. Today, the African Union (AU), through its 2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy, plans to implement new cabotage laws to finally liberate the continent’s maritime transport industry from...

Turning Vision into Reality : Namibia's long term Development Outlook

Published: 2015
This paper uses the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, which first presents a plausible long-term population forecast for Namibia. This forecast is then used to assess key targets from the National Development Plan (NDP4) and Vision 2030, Namibia’s long-term development strategy. Three scenarios is plotted in this paper, in order to chart Namibia’s potential progress. Under the...

Survive and Advance The Economics of Smuggling Refugees and Migrants into Europe

An unprecedented number of refugees and migrants have been driven to Europe due to violent conflicts, terrorism, long-standing repressive regimes, chronic poverty and inequality. Those making the journey are assisted by an increasingly violent and opportunistic smuggling industry. Sustainable profits made by this industry have allowed transnational networks to develop where they previously did...

The Zimbabwe Torture Docket Decision and Proactive Complementarity

Published: 2015
"The decision of a landmark case heard in the South African Constitutional Court means there is an obligation for states to complement the work of the International Criminal Court – extending the court’s influence in prosecuting serious crimes of international concern in states where it does not have jurisdiction under the Rome Statute. The court found that the South African security...

Violent Islamist Extremism and Terror in Africa

An overview of large-scale violence by Islamist extremists in key African countries, is presented in this paper. The paper seeks an overview of the evolution of the associated terrorism through quantitative and contextual analysis using various large data sets. The focus is on the development and links among countries experiencing the worst of this phenomenon, especially Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia,...

Future (im)perfect? Mapping Conflict, Violence and Extremism in Africa

To build accountable, capable governments that can deliver security and inclusive growth, is the central challenge for Sub-Saharan Africa. Research into the drivers, trends and characteristics of violence in Africa may help achieve these goals. This paper firstly presents global and African trends in armed conflict since 1960, while looking at armed conflict within the broader context of...

Enhancing Maritime Domain Awareness in Africa

Published: 2015
Despite numerous crimes and threats that occurred in the African maritime domain, there is also great potential for prosperity. By implementing strategies on continental, regional and national levels African states are positioning themselves to benefit from the oceans and seas. These states should support a culture of information-sharing, since this represents one of the most important ways of...

Somaliland at the Crossroads Protecting a Fragile Stability

Published: 2015
The first section of this report examines Somaliland’s political landscape ahead of the next presidential elections. It is looking at weaknesses in the political system and potential areas of instability. Most pressing is the territory’s failure to organize timeous elections – both for its parliament, which has been sitting unchanged since 2005, and for its presidency. Presidential elections...

Pages